The Long Game that Won't Wait

It’s different this time…

These four words should trigger immediate skepticism in anyone who’s spent time in business or technology. They’re the rallying cry of every bubble, the epitaph of countless failed investments, and the phrase that precedes most spectacular failures to meet expectations.

And yet, here I am, planting a flag on the idea that artificial intelligence represents a genuine inflection point for how businesses operate.

While we can all list things that were hyped to be the next big thing (3D televisions anyone?) the truth is that while business rules rarely change, adopting the right technological advancements at the right time often separates winners from losers. You can walk around your office and see technology that every person in your organization relies on every day.

And I have news: either we end up in a Terminator movie or AI is going to transform the way most businesses operate.

Why write about this?

To be frank, I’m not real sure. I think the driving reason is that on one hand the amount of hype and misinformation about AI that is being used to make business decisions is frightening. On the other hand it seems many savvy business owners and executives I talk to have embraced some quasi-luddite religion in response.

The AI enthusiasts think it’s a magic wand and are throwing AI at everything they see. Some will succeed, but many more will fail because AI at this stage isn’t good at solving poorly defined problems. Add murky, undocumented processes, backed by incomplete and dirty data, being worked on by people already afraid the technology will replace them, and you have a perfect recipe for expensive disappointment.

Wait-and-see is usually a prudent strategy, and the AI skeptics have adopted it with conviction. But as more evidence mounts that businesses will need to embrace AI just to stay competitive, I’ve started to see this patience differently. For many decision-makers, “waiting for more data” has quietly become an avoidance mechanism, a way to defer the difficult conversations about organizational change and workforce reductions that AI adoption will inevitably require.

Why listen to me?

So who am I to write about this? I’ve spent 25+ years in ERP implementation and business process consulting, including a stint as CIO of a $900 million public company. Most of my career has been spent thinking about how technology can help small and medium businesses compete. Here’s what that experience has taught me: change is constant, but the fundamentals are stubbornly durable. Double-entry accounting has outlasted empires. Perpetual inventory systems predate anyone reading this. The core mechanics of business have a way of persisting even as the tools evolve. If you want to build your own large language model, I’m not your guy. But if you need someone who understands how businesses actually operate, and you want to get your processes and people ready for what’s coming, then keep reading.

Between Miracles and Mirages

So where does that leave us? Somewhere between the sales people promising miracles from their “AI-powered” products, and the skeptics waiting for the whole thing to blow over. Neither position is a strategy.

AI is going to change how businesses operate. Not everything, not overnight, and not in all the ways currently being hyped. But it will change meaningfully, and sooner than the skeptics want to believe. The companies that thrive will be the ones that engage seriously without losing their heads.

No hype, no hand-waving, no promises of easy transformation. Just a practitioner working through what this technology actually means for how businesses run: the processes, the people, the decisions that have to be made.

The long game is here. And it won’t wait. Let’s get to work.